Fine, I have been buying Pokemon cards since Deadpool days and I believed it out of the rarity system. Then there was Pokemon TCG Pocket, the Mega Evolution set was released in September 2025 and then I find myself looking at cards that contain symbols that are not familiar to me.
Not that you are the only one in case you too are feeling the same confusion whether you have left it a few years back or are as new to this.
The thing is, this is what happened to Pokemon: they have two parallel rarity systems going on. The Trading Card Game in actual physical form utilizes more traditional symbols (circles, diamonds, stars), whilst the Pokemon TCG Pocket reduced it all to 10 separate levels. The Mega Evolution era then introduced an additional tier of rarity which is so rare that you would obviously have to open around 35 booster boxes to expect one hit.
It has a breakdown of the entire 11-tier classification system, is presented as real-world pull probabilities, and the reasoning of all this to your collection. No matter if you have certain cards you need or you are just curious about what you got in your last pack, I have you covered.
Table of Contents
The Complete 11-Tier Rarity System
Physical TCG: Symbol-Based Rarities
The physical cards have relationships in the lower right corner, which is not that complicated until you see that there are 8 variations now. The reason is as follows: most commonly to rareest:
Basic Tiers (Black Symbols)
Circle (Common) -Standard Pokemon cards you will find three per booster pack. These are your milk and water cards, the ones that you have to fill most of your binder pages with.
Diamond (Uncommon) – Pokemon stage 1 and some Trainers. Two of them are guaranteed in packs. A little more useful, yet not exactly difficult to get.
Star (Rare) – That is where there comes the interesting part. Various Pokemon with some Legendary cards which have a shiny border. One pack includes one, and this is where casual collectors tend to cease to be concerned about the rates of pulls.
Premium Tiers (More than one Star)
Double Black Star (Double Rare)- This is a type of Pokemon ex card only. These go beyond the standard card border having the artwork that spills into the periphery. It is possible, I pulled my first one after approximately 15 packs.
Two Silver Stars (Ultra Rare)- standard complete artwork cards. The whole card is transformed into canvass. Pull rate is approximately 8.23% in the Mega Evolution set, which, in other words, is approximately about 1 out of 12 packs in case of the good fortune.
Gold Star Tiers (Illustration Premium)
One Gold Star (Illustration Rare) – Full-art special artwork of basic up to rare Pokemon. I observed that these represent approximately 10.89 percent of Mega Evolution pulls- about 99 percent of the pulls. When compared to what follows, it is not bad odds.
Two Gold goals (Special Illustration Rare) – high-end full-art Pokemon ex cards. It is at this point that things become costly. Pull rate? About 0.99%, or 1 in 101 packs. I have opened 50 plus packs and am yet to hit one.
Three Gold Stars (Hyper Rare) – metal treated gold cards. These would be the chase cards… until September 2025.
The New Apex
Mega Hyper Rare (MHR) – These full art secret cards, available in Mega Evolution, completely changed the meaning of rare. It is represented in only two cards in the whole set, Mega Lucario ex and Mega Gardevoir ex. It has a pull rate of 1 in 1,260 packs. Yes, you read that right. It is 0.079 percent, which, statistically, is even less likely than the Moonbreon card which was the bane of collector obsession in 2022.
I did the calculations: There are about 35 boxes of boosters–vaulting on 6 cases–you would have to have to have a chance of getting one. At existing market rates, that translates to $50, 000 and above to ensure that you will be pulling both.
Pokemon TCG Pocket: Digital Simplified System.
The mobile game simplified but brought some twists to it. Here’s the 10-tier breakdown:
Diamond Tiers
- Diamond 1 (Common): Three in pack, basic Pokemon.
- Diamond 2 (Unknown): Two per pack, Pokemon Stage 1.
- Diamond 3 (Rare): Varied Pokemon having shining borders.
- Diamond 4 (Double Rare ex): Pokemon ex that have long artwork.
Star Tiers
- 1-Star (Illustration Rare): basic or rare Pokemon full-art.
- 2-Star (Special Rare Illustration): Full art Pokemon ex, high-end illustrations.
- 3-Star (Immersive): Imagery with effects and a drawn look- these works appear amazing on mobile.
Crown & Shiny
- Crown (Ultra Rare): Cards of lower rarity with alternate gold art also exist, and are visually identical to the other cards.
- 1-Star Shiny: Gleaming pieces of art forms of Shiny Pokemon.
- 2-Star Shiny: Full art Shiny Pokemon ex.
Pocket system is easier to be detected with visual tools because you do not need to strain your eyes to see the tiny symbols, but it caused confusion to those who purchase physical cards as well. I have had to clarify to friends numerous occasions that a Crown in Pocket is not exactly a comparable rarity level in real life.
Pull Probability: What Your Money Actually Gets You
Be honest with me the knowledge of the pull rates altered my card purchasing habits. I began making rational choices of when to go out and purchase singles and when I want to crack packs, rather than chasing each and every pack.
Mega Evolution Set: The Present Model.
The set by September 2025 as delivered (if you were to buy 100 of the packs:
| Rarity Tier | Pull Rate | Packs Needed | Cost (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.91% | ~5 packs | $25 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.23% | ~12 packs | $60 |
| Illustration Rare | 10.89% | ~9 packs | $45 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 0.99% | ~101 packs | $500+ |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.079% | ~1,260 packs | $6,300+ |
The “hit rate” or any secret rare card is approximately 19%. That is a pass by the historical standards in the past which stood at about 15-16 percent.
Comparing to Previous Sets
This is where the interest comes in. Mega Evolution set made most of the rarities more accessible but artificially scarce at the upper level.
This was a contest between Megas and Destined Rivals (2025 comparison):
- Double rare: 20.91% vs. 19.83 percent – a little easier +1.08)
- Ultra Rare: 8.23% vs. 6.39% – significantly better improved by (1.84) percent.
- Illustration Rare: 10.89% vs. 8.29% – most generous improvement (2.60)
- Special Illustration Rare: 0.99% vs. 1.06% -just a little harder (-0.07%)
And what this informs me: Pokemon is hoping more collectors get to have the experience of getting the premium pull without making the highest tier of all that. It’s smart business, honestly. You enjoy the experience of opening the packet as you are hitting the Illustration Rares roughly every time, however the cards you really want are unreachable to 99% of the collectors.
The Reality Check
I followed the pulls of 40 Mega Evolution packs on myself. Here’s what I actually got:
- M-plot Field Calibration (5.0% creep) Double Rares (12.5 out of 50)
- 4 Illustration Rares (10% – on target)
- 1 Ultra Rare (2.5% – got lucky here)
- 0 Special Illustration Rares
- 0 Mega Hyper Rares
Total spent: $200. Sum of market value of pulls: around 120. Yeah, I lost money. However–here is the point I liked opening them packs. The second you consider this opening of packs a form of pure investment, you are gambling, not collecting.
Collection Impact What This Really means to you.
It is one thing to understand the rarities. Another one is knowing the impacts that they have on your strategy of collecting. Now, I will deconstruct the actual implications.
Completing Sets Is Now Impossible (For Most People)
You remember how it was possible to manage to do a complete set of Pokemon? Those days are gone.There are 206 cards in the Mega Evolution set together with secret rares. To win it and both Mega Hyper
Rares you would have to have statistical chance:
- Minimum 1,260+ to buy the MHR cards alone.
- About 6,300 and above to buy those two cards.
- Another 2-3,000 dollars on buying other secret rares.
- Total investment: $8,000-10,000
I no longer had any hope of completing master set in 2024. At this point, I am putting my attention on what I would call the achievable completion: all of that but the highest 1-2 levels of rarity. In the case of Mega Evolution that gets cut off at Special Illustration Rares. This strategy costs at an estimated amount of 1,500-2,000 and seems quite achievable.
Grading Has Become Non-Negotiable
And that is something that has been revolutionized in 2025, the grading premium. Raw Special Illustration Rare of this can fetch $80. The same card (PSA 10): Gem Mint? $240-320. That’s a 3-4x multiplier.
Why? Two reasons:
- Focus on standards – Quality of the print was also increased in Pokemon and thus the PSA 10s became the norm and not exception.
- Market maturity – Long-term value market has finally come to light that condition counts.
I began making new pulls as soon as I opened. Direct to sleeve cards with packets have the highest odds of getting PSA 10 since they have not been touched at all. The strategy made a few pulls of 40 dollars into 150+ graded cards.
However, the point is that in this case, grading is only viable in the case of cards that cost at least 50 dollars. The profit margin is swallowed by the below that, the $30-40 grading fee.
Market Timing Windows Are Real
Special Illustration Rares are predictable in their price:
- Week 1-2: ThePrice Goes Up! Collectors scramble to own sets.
- Weeks 3-6: A steady downward trend with increasing supply in the market.
- Weeks 7-12: Leveling off at 50-70 percent peak price.
- Months 6 and above: sluggish appreciation on playability and nostalgia.
I drew a Special illustration uncommon Pikachu of one week one of a prior collection. Sold it immediately for $280. That same card now sits at $160. I went on and used that $280 to purchase three various cards that I greatly desired at their stabilization point.
The lesson? When you get a chase card and you personally just do not like it, get rid of it during the hype profit.
Also Read: Complete Guide to Pokemon TCG Pocket Promo Cards
Specialization Beats Diversification
By the middle of 2024, two years after casting about in collecting, I shifted to the specialty. I chose to go and get all the Gardevoir cards of all the rarities during the Mega Evolution time. This approach:
- Has definite goals of acquisition – I understand exactly what I want.
- Produces community value – Other Gardevoir collectors buy and sell me.
- Makes the completion seem possible – 12-15 cards against 200+.
Depending on your specialization it may be:
- One Pokemon across all sets
- Every Special Illustration Rare of a type.
- All cards of a particular artist.
- Whole deck cores of competitors.
The narrower your scope of attention, the more gratifying your bundle.
The Authentication Crisis
The use of counterfeit cards increased in excellence during 2024-2025. Personally, I have dealt with forgeries of Special Illustration Rares which at first appearances had been deceptive to me. The tells:
- Very slight misplaced font weight.
- The inconsistencies of Holofoil pattern.
- Card stock variations of thickness.
- Variations in saturation of color.
Professional grading offers the authentication insurance to any card worth more than 100 dollars. Grading is conducted by PSB, BGS, and CGC which all check authenticity. Sure, it costs you $30-40, however you get rid of the danger of purchasing a fake product that will cost you in the tune of $300.
I found it out the hard way about a deal in Facebook Marketplace that offered to sell me what was supposedly a Special Illustration Rare Charizard at $180. Turned out to be fake. It was paid in the form of friends/family, hence no option. I can afford to purchase just premium singles of confirmed sellers or graded ones now.
Budget-Conscious Collecting Strategies
Not all people can afford to spend such an amount of money every month about cards (200, and more). And here is a way I would go about gathering upon three different budgets:
$50/month budget:
- Purchase 10 packets OR 23 targeted ones.
- Target Illustration Rares (1-Star Gold) when you are using a roof.
- Compete aggressively locally.
- Do not use skip chase cards, but wait at least 6+ months until prices fall.
$150/month budget:
- Combination of 15-20 packs and choosy singles.
- Target Special Illustration Rares in periods of stabilization.
- Pulls Submit your best pulls to have them graded (1-2 cards/month)
- Construct either single collection (either Pokemon or set).
$500+/month budget:
- Purchase booster boxes to increased pack prices.
- Buy Special trades at the peak, invert.
- Grade everything worth $50+
- As an investment, consider sealed product investing in long-term investments.
I am within the $150/month range at the moment. I find it enough to be involved and not to burst my budget, and I can afford to spend a sporadic amount when a certain card that I am really interested in declines in prices.
The Bottom Line
The design of the system of rarity became complicated in Pokemon. The higher the tiers, the higher the chases and this keeps the collectors going and purchasing. But it also means:
- A finish was a luxury that could only be afforded by the rich collectors.
- Diversification was ousted by specialization.
- Knowledge in the market became the key to value retention.
- Grading left optional status to become a requirement of serious collecting.
- The issue of authentication must be attentive on each purchase.
My recommendations after moving in this system two years ago? Explain your own interpretation of the term of collecting. You can go on burning and go broke, should you pursue all the rare cards. By gathering what truly brings you joy, be it a single Pokemon, a single artist, a particular tier of rarity, etc., you will indeed have fun in the hobby.
The era of Mega Evolution gave some of the cards a cheaper make (Illustration Rares) and pushed others to extinction (Mega Hyper Rares). Pick your targets carefully, know the odds and keep in mind: this is a game.
And honestly? There are times when you pull best when you are smiling and the prices of that pull might be very low.
Read:
Pokemon TCG Pocket Drop Events Guide: Expert Strategies
I’m a content writer with a passion for games and strategy.I’m dedicated to creating content that is engaging and informative for today’s audience. I keep a close eye on the latest gaming trends and industry trends to provide entertaining and informative articles. Whether it’s exploring new tools or analyzing the sport, I bring a new accessible voice to each episode. Let us connect and enhance your content with knowledge and insight!
